Use of Generalized Activity Network Models for Analysis of European Atm Development Projects

Many of the challenges facing the ATM research community are well-known and include substantial technical risk and difficulty demonstrating benefits for stakeholders. To these concerns, we propose to add another: inadequate understanding of the cost and schedule risks of development programs. Of these risks, political influences are particularly difficult to analyze. Political decisions can effect the choice of development processes, which can drastically effect the final cost, completion time, and probability of success for the project. In this paper, we propose a method to analyze the impacts of technical risk and political effects on the time to complete ATM development projects. We recommend the use of this approach for all major development projects as a way to improve the management of ATM programs, identify sources of risk, and better predict project completion times and their costs. We illustrate the approach by analyzing a simple but relevant example from a recent ATM development project in Europe.